China Bond Virtual Series
Virtual Series
September 1 - 3, 2020



      IMN’s China Bond Virtual Series 中国债券市场主题系列

      • Series Supporters:   IMN's ‘China Bond Virtual Series’, taking place September 1-3, is a series of live virtual panels that will provide insights on how to invest in the world’s 3rd largest bond market.  Given the size and importance of China’s economy, it is very important for any investor active in emerging markets to have an understanding of Chinese monetary and economic policy.  This series of webcasts will highlight these topics as well as opportunities in the domestic Chinese fixed income market. This includes corporate bonds, indices, and especially ABS (which topped over $250billion in total issuance in 2018). In addition to the various fixed income investment opportunities in China, the series will delve deeper into the unique features and key risks foreign investors should consider. The ABS market will also be addressed in detail, including an overview of asset types (auto, consumer loans, NPLs, SME loans, factoring receivables), deal structures, the difference in the exchange versus the interbank market and regulatory developments specific to the securitization marketplace.  The event will be presented in English and the timing will allow for US Investors on the East and West Coast as well as those based in Europe to participate live. Lead Association Supporter:       Association Supporters:            此次活动即将开放注册,请联系events@imn.org以获取详细信息。 IMN“中国债券主题系列”会议将于9月1日至9月3日在线举行。此次活动将以在线小组讨论形式由行业资深人士介绍世界第二大债券市场,并分享投资理念。 中国市场的体量及其重要性都在吸引越来越多活跃在新兴市场的投资者的关注,这也引发了越来越多的投资者想要了解中国货币政策以及宏观经济政策。本次在线会议将从这一角度出发,聚焦中国宏观经济以及中国固收市场投资机会。会议交流所涉及的产类型包括公司债、指数,尤其是资产支持证券(2018年发行总额超过2500亿美元)。 本系列活动将深入探讨国际投资者入市投资时应考虑到的中国市场独有的市场特征以及可能面临的风险。此外,与会人士还将详细讨论由不同底层资产组成的证券化产品(包括汽车贷款、消费贷款、不良贷款、中小企业贷款、保理应收账款)的交易结构,并分享交易所市场与银行间市场的差异,以及与证券化市场相关的监管框架和发展。 此次活动将采用英文交流,时间也将优先选取美国东西部投资者及欧洲投资者方便参会的时间段。

    Tuesday, 01 September 2020

      Day One: Understanding China’s Macro Economy 了解中国宏观经济

      • Times are reflected in Eastern Standard Time to Maximize U.S. East and West Coast and European investor live participation.

      9:00 AM ()
      Outlook of Chinese Economic Growth and Monetary Policy 中国经济增长及货币政策展望

        • How has the forecast for China’s GDP growth been revised amid COVID-19?
        • How are investors and analysts independently measuring economic growth? What are the metrics being measured?
          • industrial production, electricity output, steel output
        • Tracing the shape of Chinese economic recovery post coronavirus: sharp V, U or the elongated bathtub?
        • COVID related changes in Chinese consumer behavior including auto finance, online lending, and retail
        • High government debt levels tied to infrastructure and construction projects; cause for concern?
        • Banks’ NPL balance: Rising distressed debt volumes and government intervention
        • How stable is China’s financial system? Plans re: de-leveraging the financial sector and the real economy
        • Monetary policy conduct and the credit system: social/ aggregate financing and M2 (money supply measure)
        • What are the main tools in the monetary war chest? i.e. 1y deposit, 1y lending, RRR, 7 Day repo rate, 3mo shibor, USDCNY fix and what is their impact on China government bond yield? What are the various scenarios in which each tool may be deployed and what is its impact on bond yield?
        • 新冠疫情爆发之后中国经济增速预测发生了怎样的改变?
        • 投资人和分析师如何独立衡量经济增长?衡量指标有哪些?
          • 工业生产、电量输出、钢铁产量;
        • 预测中国经济复苏曲线,V形,U形,还是加长浴缸形?
        • 新冠疫情对于中国消费者行为的影响和改变有哪些?包括汽车金融、线上借贷、及零售;
        • 基础设施建设项目导致的政府高企的负债水平是否会引发市场担忧?
        • 探讨商业银行不断攀升的不良资产余额以及政府干预措施;
        • 中国金融系统的稳定性如何?关于金融行业和实体经济去杠杆的计划有哪些?
        • 货币政策执行以及信贷体系:社会/总融资和M2(货币供应计量);
        • 货币调节中的主要工具有哪些:即,一年期存款、一年期贷款、存款准备金率、7天回购利率、3个月的SHIBOR、中国汇率政策等、它们对中国国债收益率的影响是什么?各类工具的使用场景以及它们对债券收益率的影响有哪些?

        • Elliot Wilson, Greater China Editor (Euromoney)
        • Andrew Fennell, Senior Director, Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings (Fitch Ratings)

      9:45 AM ()

      10:15 AM ()
      Chinese Regulation and Political Risk 101, Demystifying the Governance of Chinese Financial Markets 中国债市入门:揭开中国金融市场治理的神秘面纱

        • Understanding China policy making process – who’s in charge and who are the executors, how does PBoC differ from western central banks
        • The major monetary policy tools today, their respective functions, how they works and the key decision dates for each
        • Key regulatory bodies for China’s bond market and their respective roles and functions
        • What are the component of China fixed income markets, such as the markets, the types of bonds, key derivatives
        • Foreign investments into China bonds – process, relevant regulators, accessible products, capital controls, FX hedging consideration
        • 了解中国经济政策制定过程,由什么机构负责,又由什么机构执行,中国人民银行与其他西方央行有何不同
        • 当今市场主要货币政策工具以及它们各自的功能,它们如何生效以及每个关键决策的日期
        • 中国债券市场的主要监管机构及其各自的作用和职能
        • 中国固定收益市场的主要元素探讨:债券市场本身、债券类型、以及关键衍生品
        • 海外投资人投资中国债券相关细节探讨:投资流程、相关监管机构、可投资产品、资本控制、外汇对冲考虑

        • Jeff Zhang, Partner (Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP)
        • Becky Liu, Managing Director, Head, China Macro Strategy (Standard Chartered Bank)

      11:00 AM ()
      Webcast One of the China Bond Virtual Series concludes 中国债券市场主题系列第一天会议结束

    Wednesday, 02 September 2020

      Day Two: Understanding China's Bond Market 了解中国债市

      9:00 AM ()
      What to Buy? Dim Sum and Then Some, An Overview of What’s on the Fixed Income Investment Menu 投资者到底买什么?从点心债到其他债,中国固收市场可投资资产概述

        • What is the size and potential for growth of the world’s 2nd largest fixed income market; 
        • The China Interbank Bond Market (CIBM)
          • Asset types: Chinese treasury bonds, provincial and local government bonds; central bank paper; corporate credit bonds; State Owned Enterprises; policy banks ( China Development Bank, Export Import Bank of China); commercial paper, Asset Backed Securities
        • Potential for additional foreign investment given infrastructure financing needs (Belt and Road) and ability for Chinese corporate borrowers to raise capital in any foreign currency with no RMB repatriation limits
        • Foreign friendly Dim Sum Bonds: issued in Hong Kong by Chinese Banks and some overseas entities, denominated in Yuan
        • Bond Indices
          • Which major indices now include Chinese on shore debt and government bonds? Citi, JPM, Bloomberg
        • 探讨世界第二大债券市场的体量以及未来成长空间;
        • 中国银行间债券市场:
          • 资产类别:国债、省级和地方政府债、中央银行票据、公司信用债、国企、政策性银行(国开行、进出口银行);商业汇票、资产支持证券;
        • 考虑到基建设施项目融资(一带一路倡议相关项目)融资需求,以及中国企业在海外无人民币汇回限制的情况下继续再融资的潜力,国际投资者应有更多投资中国债券市场的机会;
        • 海外投资者较为青睐的点心债:由中国国内银行以及海外机构在香港发行的以人民币计价债券;
        • 债券指数:
          • 哪些主要指数已经包括了中国在岸债券及政府债券?花旗、摩根大通、彭博

        • Yi Chen, Managing Director and Head of Global Capital Markets (Haitong International Securities Company Limited)
        • Izura Shentu, Vice General Manager of FICC Global Trade (Zheshang Securities)

      9:45 AM ()

      10:15 AM ()
      How to Access the CIBM: Understanding the Main Pathways for Foreign Investors 如何进入银行间债券市场:了解国际投资者可选的主要途径

        • Compare and contrast the advantages of investing in the CIBM versus the stock exchange market; specifically in regards to diversity of assets, overall size, and liquidity
        • Role of Tradeweb and Bond Connect
          • Tradeweb provides fully electronic access for price discovery, settlement and transparency in the CIBM via Bond Connect
          • Bond Connect provides mutual access between Hong Kong and mainland China’s financial infrastructure with repsect to trading, custody and settlement
        • Comparing the advantages of Bond Connect to the alternative pathways: QFII and RQFII Programs; how Bond Connect has lowered barriers to entry for overseas investors
        • FX considerations
        • Liquidity concerns
        • 比较银行间市场和交易所市场的优劣;尤其两市在资产多样性、市场体量、以及流动性方面的差异;
        • Tradeweb 和债券通的作用
          • Tradeweb 通过作为债券通的主要交易平台,提供银行间市场的价格发现、结算信息等以提高透明度;
          • 债券通作为中国大陆与香港之间的金融基础设施,提供双向的交易、托管和结算服务;
        • 对比债券通与其他跨境交易路径的优劣:QFII和RQFII计划;债券通如何降低海外投资者的市场进入壁垒;
        • 汇率考虑;
        • 流动性考虑;

        • Julien Martin, General Manager (Bond Connect Company Limited)

      11:00 AM ()
      Webcast Two of the China Bond Virtual Series concludes 中国债券市场主题系列第二天会议结束

    Thursday, 03 September 2020

      Day Three: Understanding China’s Bond Market in Depth 深度了解中国债券市场

      9:00 AM ()
      Overview of the Chinese ABS Market 中国资产证券化市场概述

        • Defining the interbank vs. exchange market and the regulatory landscape; defining asset backed notes and their inclusion in the interbank scheme
        • Respective roles and relationships between of the PBOC, NAFMII, China Banking Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission in governing the ABS market
        • Overview of relevant regulatory bodies applicable for individual asset classes and / or securitization regimes
        • Asset types and deal structures: Autos, Consumer loans, Corporate SME loans, trade receivables, factoring/leasing receivables
        • Emerging assets including CMBS and REITs
        • 定义银行间市场和交易所市场,以及监管环境;定义资产支持票据及其纳入银行同业拆借计划;
        • 中国人民银行、中国银行间市场交易商协会、中国银保监会和中国证监会在监管ABS市场方面各自的分工和相互之间的关系;
        • 适用于个别资产类别和/或证券化制度的对应监管机构描述;
        • 资产类别和交易结构:汽车贷款、消费贷款、中小企业贷款、应收账款、保理/租赁应收款;
        • 新兴资产类别:商业地产抵押贷款证券化 CMBS和不动产投资信托公司REITS

        • Lydia Lai, Director, Capital Market Solutions (Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited)
        • Chi Zhang, Rating Director, Structured Finance & Financial Institutions (Fitch Bohua Credit Ratings)
        • David Zhang, President (TCFA)

      9:45 AM ()

      10:15 AM ()
      Key Considerations for the Foreign Bond Investor 国际债券投资者的主要考虑

        • Why include China in the global investment portfolio?
        • Inclusion in global emerging market and government bond indices: will this become the norm and what does this mean for global investors? Do we need China in our benchmarks?
        • Rates: what is the impact of a depreciating yuan on global investor appetite for onshore debt?
        • What investor protections are in place?
        • How easy is it to move money in and out of China?
        • Public versus Private Markets in China: What are the major private equity and real estate developments in China? Where are US private equity firms investing?
        • Bond Trading Challenges:
          • Logistics: navigating the time zones. Is a local partner required to execute trades? How much control should you be willing to give up?
          • Liquidity: how are traders managing the liquidity risk, especially for off the run bonds? How will local bond holders respond in a short-term repo collapse and liquidity squeeze? How liquid is the secondary market in the absence of a centralized market maker?
          • Duration Risk: How easy is it to employ bond futures, or interest rate SWAPS as a hedging tool?
          • Inflation Risk: Profiling the current local bank holder of bonds. How interest rate and inflation risk sensitive are they? How can this impact the foreign investor?
          • Term premiums: how can this effectively be measured? Is there a historical curve used for reference?
          • Credit analysis: what should investors be prepared to do?
        • What are the main obstacles for global investors?
          • Access to the market: remaining regulatory barriers and required schemes investors must meet
          • Pricing risk accurately: are current levels of disclosure and transparency sufficient in order for offshore investors to evaluate risk and return effectively?
        • 为何要在国际投资组合中纳入中国元素?
        • 纳入全球新兴市场和政府债券指数:这会成为常态吗?这对全球投资者意味着什么?我们的对比基准中需要中国元素吗?
        • 人民币贬值对于海外投资者投资中国债市兴趣影响几何?
        • 现在市场有什么投资者保护举措?
        • 资金进出中国难易程度如何?
        • 中国市场私募与公募对比:中国私募基金和房地产投资最新发展?美国私募股权基金投资方向主要有哪些?
        • 债券交易中的挑战:
          • 执行: 时差。执行交易时是否需要本地的合作方? 对于控制权需要放弃多少?
          • 流动性:交易员如何管理流动性风险,尤其是对于非当期发行的债券?在短期回购崩溃和流动性紧缩的情况下,地方债券持有人将如何应对?在没有集中做市商的情况下,二级市场的流动性如何?
          • 久期:采用债券期货、利率互换作为对冲工具是否容易?
          • 通胀风险:分析当前本地银行债券持有人的情况。他们对利率和通胀风险有多敏感?这对外国投资者有何影响?
          • 定期保费:如何有效衡量?是否有历史曲线可供参考?
          • 信用分析:投资者应该准备怎么做?
        • 国际投资者面临的主要障碍是什么?             
          • 市场准入:现有的监管政策壁垒以及投资者参与市场所需要满足的条件;            
          • 精准定价风险:目前的信息披露程度和透明度是否足以让海外投资者进行有效的风险和回报评估?

        • Matthew O'Sullivan, Head of Origination Asia Pacific (M&G Investments)
        • Scott Grimberg, Portfolio Manager (Calpers)
        • Lue Kok-Meng, Vice President and Chief Investment Officer (Nippon Wealth Life Insurance Company)

      11:00 AM ()
      China Bond Virtual Series concludes 中国债券市场主题系列线上会议闭幕

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