Chinese NPLs Conference
Shanghai
November, 2020

Description

As is the host of the leading Italian and Greek NPL events annually in Europe, IMN has established a strong network of large private equity firms specializing in the investment and servicing of bank loan portfolios. Building on the success of these events, the inaugural Chinese NPLs Conference, taking place November 2020 in Shanghai, will bring together overseas investors and local asset management companies to discuss strategies that will help China’s leading banking institutions optimise their balance sheets. The programme will cover the various means of NPL disposal including whole loan sales, in-house and third party servicing, and the potential role of securitisation. 

Who Should Attend
  • International and onshore banks (Underwriting and treasury teams)
  • Corporate borrowers 
  • Investment managers and asset managers
  • Mortgage lenders
  • Issuer and underwriter’s counsel
  • Local and international ratings agencies
  • Key regulators of the structured credit markets in Asia

My Agenda

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Agenda

    Friday, 20 November 2020

      07:45
      Breakfast and Delegate Registration



      08:15
      Pre-Conference Primer: China NPL market 101

        • Understand the classification of NPLs in China and how it differs from those in other jurisdictions;
        • Understand the market development of China NPLs market– from the NPL crisis 20 years ago to the current status;
        • A brief introduction of the regulatory landscape in China NPL market – which regulators oversee the market, what is the individual role of PBOC (People’s Bank of China) and CBIRC (China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission)?
        • An introduction of China NPL ecosystem – who are the main market participants? What are their functions?
        • What does NPAS (Non-performing Asset Securitisation) mean? What are the underlying assets? What is the difference between NPAS and traditional securitisation?


      09:00
      Hosts’ Welcoming Remarks: IMN



        • Jade Friedensohn, Managing Director (IMN)

      09:05
      Outlook of Global Economy

        • How much has Coronavirus affected the global economy? With the virus spread in Asia and Europe, will the world still meet the IMF forecast of the annual growth rate of 3.3% this year?
        • What measures have been taken by the leading economies to mitigate the negative influences? Will a global recession be triggered amid virus outbreak, trade tensions, and geographically political risks?
        • A review of China’s 2020 and its 13th Five-Year achievements. What impacts has Coronavirus caused on China? How much did it slow down the growth of the world’s second largest economy?
        • 2021 is the first year of China’s 14th Five-year Plan, what are the next steps, what kind of monetary and fiscal policies can we expect? Will China bounce back rapidly after the ‘virus hit’?
        • A new world order after 2020? – what will happen after the US election, Brexit transition period, and the Coronavirus damage;


      10:00
      The Rising Investment Opportunities: China NPL Market

        • What is the current NPL level in China? A discussion about banks’ strategies and efforts to reduce NPL;
        • How have China’s NPL management strategies evolved during the last two decades? What lessons have we learnt?
        • What are the main strategies of NPL clean-up? Which market players are involved? Costs comparison among different NPL disposal strategies;
        • China has been raising tolerance for NPL ratio since the outbreak of Coronavirus, what will be the consequences and what are the associated opportunities?
        • Does the rising level of NPL constitute a large threat to China’s banking stability? Compared to state owned banks, are smaller lenders more risky – local commercial banks, rural credit cooperatives, and rural commercial banks?
        • Why asset quality is a big issue of NPL, will asset quality deteriorate further in the coming years amid trade tensions and other uncertainties?
        • The future of China NPL market: with foreign servicers entering China market and obtain local AMC licenses, what are the impacts?


      10:50
      Refreshment Break in Exhibition Hall



      11:20
      On Stage Interview with Local AMCs

        • Status check: Efforts and achievements of local AMCs;
        • Besides NPL disposal, what other business are they involved in?
        • Is NPL business still bringing attractive profit to them? What efforts have AMCs made to maximise their profitability?
        • With more companies are granted AMC license, what are the new challenges facing existing market players? What are their advantages in the market?
        • How do non-licensed AMC spot opportunities in the market? Compared to industrial/ultimate investors, what are their strengths?
        • Innovations in NPL disposal;


      12:10
      Global Investors’ Panel: What Happens Next When US Institutions Are Allowed to Apply for AMC Licenses in China

        • The phase-one US China trade deal allows US institutions to acquire nonperforming loans directly from Chinese banks, what are we expecting to see in the market?
        • How important is it for international servicers and investors to have onshore presences?
        • NPL outlook and developments in other more mature countries/markets;
        • Servicing and foreclosure: good practices and public oversight;
        • Compare and Contrast China NPL market with the other jurisdictions;
        • Discussion around different asset classes and expected returns - Which NPL assets are most attractive to international investors?
        • A forecast of the upcoming year: Where are the opportunities? What are the concerns?


      13:00
      Delegate Luncheon



      Track A 14:10
      NPL Securitisation

        • Why banks choose to use securitisation as a tool to deal with NPL especially when the underlying assets are credit card and mortgage? What are the main features of these underlying assets?
        • What are the key differences between a traditional ABS and NPAS? When the underlying assets are NPA (Non-performing Assets), what should investors, especially junior tranche investors pay attention to?
        • Key issues in valuation;
        • What are the challenges facing rating agencies?
        • Strategies to mitigate the risk when designing the deal structure;


      Track B 14:10
      Real Estate Valuation Developments

        • Outlook of China real estate market, will the property prices continue to rise after Coronavirus attack? Will the trends differ among Tier 1cities and the rest of the country?
        • What are the key challenges in real estate valuation, especially for commercial property?
        • Will the increasing value decrease LTV ratio and improve the recovery rate?


      Track A 15:00
      Experience from More Established Jurisdictions in Europe and US

        • What efforts have been made in European countries to reduce NPL ratio from the government level? To what extent has the government get involved? Has the government intervention worked?
        • How much amount of NPL has been reduced? Which sectors still have the highest volume of NPLs?
        • What kind of role should China government play in NPL reduction?
        • Good practice sharing: Banks’ strategies of NPL reduction;
        • Good practice and experience sharing by servicers and investors;


      Track B 15:00
      Opportunities in Distressed Business amid A Slowing down Economy

        • How are SMEs coping with the virus crisis? What strategies did they take to survive? How many of them went bankruptcy because of the virus outbreak? Which industries suffer the most?
        • Banks’ efforts to support SMEs;
        • What are the challenges when collecting loans from distressed business?
        • What infrastructures are required to deal with SME loans;
        • What is the real value to due diligence when dealing with SMEs?
        • Where are the opportunities?
         

      15:50
      Refreshment Break in Exhibition Hall



      Track A 16:20
      Outlook of China Bond Market

        • China’s debt level has been rising rapidly since 2009, which has reached over 300% of its GDP in 2019. What are the reasons behind this? Is the country’s deleveraging strategy working?
        • With 177 bonds went default in various sectors in 2019, do investors still have confidence in fixed income market? What are the impacts of corporate bond default? Are Quasi- municipal bonds still safe?
        • What is the impact of enterprise bond and corporate bond issuance moving from an approval system to a registration system? Can we expecting a huge increase in the issuance?
        • What is the impact of the inclusion of China’s government bonds into JP Morgan Government Bond Index Emerging Markets?
        • What are the differences in the methodologies applied by CRAs when rating bonds onshore and offshore? What are the challenges facing rating agencies?
        • To what extent did Coronavirus affect firms’ ability to repay bonds? Will the default rate hit a record high in 2020?


      Track B 16:20
      Asia NPL Level – How much is China affecting the Whole Asia?

        • China, Japan, and Korea all suffered badly from the outbreak of Coronavirus, how much did this hurt the region’s economy?
        • Are bank in Asia experiencing a higher NPL ratio in 2020? What is the current situation?
        • What have been banks doing to control NPL level in other Asian areas? Did this bring new opportunities for international investors?


      17:10
      The 1st Annual Chinese NPLs Conference Concludes



    会议当天

      07:45
      早餐及参会登记



      08:15
      会前课堂:中国不良贷款市场入门

        • 了解中国不良贷款的分类,并对比其与世界其他地区的概念及分类异同;
        • 了解中国不良贷款市场的发展——概述从20年前的不良贷款危机到如今的市场状态;
        • 简要介绍中国不良贷款市场的监管环境——哪些监管机构负责参与市场监管,中国人民银行(PBOC)和中国银保监会(CBIRC)各自的职责是什么?
        • 介绍中国不良贷款生态系统——谁是主要的市场参与者?他们的角色分别是什么?
        • 不良资产证券化是什么意思?其基础资产有哪些?它与传统的资产证券化有何区别?


      09:00
      主办方致辞



      09:05
      全球经济展望

        • 新冠病毒爆发对全球经济的影响有多大?随着病毒在亚洲和欧洲不断传播扩散,全球经济发展是否还可能达到年初国际货币基金组织所预测的增长率3.3%?
        • 世界各大经济体采取了哪些措施来降低病毒所带来的负面影响?病毒爆发、贸易摩擦、地缘政治风险,种种因素是否会引发全球进入衰退?
        • 回顾中国的2020年以及“十三五”成绩。新冠病毒对中国经济造成了哪些影响?它在多大程度上抑制了世界第二大经济体的增长?
        • 展望“十四五”开局之年:2021中国货币政策和财政政策预测。新冠过后,中国经济会迅速反弹吗?
        • 当全世界在2020年经历了美国大选、英国脱欧过渡期,和全球新冠病毒肆虐之后,我们是否会迎来一个新的世界格局?


      10:00
      投资正当时:中国不良贷款市场的机遇

        • 中国目前的不良贷款率如何?商业银行采取了哪些措施来降低不良率?
        • 总结过去20年中不良资产处理的经验和教训;我们从中学到了什么?
        • 目前不良贷款处置的主要策略有哪些?涉及哪些市场参与者?不同处置方式的成本比较;
        • 自新冠病毒爆发以来,中国政府一直在提高对不良贷款率的容忍度,对于市场有何影响?我们从中见到哪些新的机遇?
        • 不良率攀升是否正在威胁到中国银行业的稳定性?相比国有银行,规模较小的放贷机构是否风险更大,比如城市商业银行、农村信用合作社和农村商业银行?
        • 为什么资产质量优劣持续成为导致不良率攀升的重要原因,如果未来数年内贸易摩擦持续,再合并其他不确定因素,是否会导致资产质量进一步恶化?
        • 展望中国不良贷款市场:随着外国服务商被允许进入中国市场,并获得AMC牌照,会对市场产生什么影响?


      10:50
      茶歇及展区交流



      11:20
      现场访谈:国内资产管理公司

        • 交流资产管理公司这些年在资产处置领域的成绩;
        • 除了不良贷款处置,资产管理公司在业务发展中还涉猎了哪些业务领域?
        • 不良贷款处置业务回报收益是否依然可观?资产管理公司如何提升自身盈利能力?
        • 随着更多公司获得AMC牌照,牌照稀缺性是否正在下降?资产管理公司面临的挑战有哪些?对比新晋持牌机构,已经运作多年的资产管理公司有哪些优势?
        • 非持牌资产管理公司如何发现投资机遇?与行业投资者相比,他们的优势是什么?
        • 不良贷款处置创新分享;


      12:10
      海外投资人圆桌:美国企业被允许在国内申请AMC牌照是否会颠覆行业秩序?

        • 第一阶段美中贸易协定允许美国机构直接从中资银行获得不良贷款,这一政策开放对于市场几何?
        • 对国际服务商和投资者而言,在国内设立实体机构的必要性如何?
        • 成熟市场的不良业务最新发展与前景展望;
        • 服务和止赎:经验分享与公共监督;
        • 国内与其他国家地区不良市场的特点与异同;
        • 国际投资者的投资偏好,对比不同类型资产投资及其预期回报;
        • 前景展望:未来投资机遇与市场挑战;


      13:00
      与会者午餐



      Track A 14:10
      分会场A: 不良资产证券化

        • 为什么对于信用卡和房贷,银行通常倾向于选择资产证券化作为处置工具?这些贷款的特点是什么?
        • 不良资产证券化与传统的资产证券化之间有什么区别?面对不良资产支持证券,投资者,尤其是劣后级投资者应该注意什么?
        • 估值中的关键点和注意事项有哪些?
        • 面对不良资产支持证券,评级机构面临哪些挑战?
        • 是否有可能通过交易结构的设计来降低投资风险?


      Track B 14:10
      分会场B: 不动产估值探讨

        • 展望中国房地产市场——新冠病毒肆虐之后房价还会继续上涨吗?国内房价趋势在一线城市和其他城市是否会有分化?
        • 房地产估值,尤其是商业地产估值,面临哪些挑战?
        • 伴随贷款价值比不断提高,贷款回收率是否会得到改善?


      Track A 15:00
      分会场A: 欧美市场经验分享及案例分析

        • 就政府层面而言,欧洲国家在降低不良贷款率方面做出了哪些努力?政府干预程度如何?效果又如何?
        • 金融危机至今欧洲国家的不良率改善了多少?哪些行业依然是不良贷款重灾区?
        • 就中国情况而言,政府和监管层为改善不良率做了哪些努力,未来方向如何?
        • 成熟市场经验分享:商业银行减少不良贷款的战略;
        • 成熟市场投资人和服务商经验分享及交流;


      Track B 15:00
      分会场B: 困境企业投资机遇

        • 中小企业如何应对新冠病毒所带来的冲击?企业采取了什么样的应对措施?有多少企业没能在疫情冲击中幸免?哪些行业受影响最大?
        • 商业银行如何支持中小企业渡过难关;
        • 向困境企业催收面临哪些挑战和不确定性?
        • 哪些基础设施在中小企业贷款催收中发挥着重要作用?
        • 尽调在中小企业贷款与不良处置中的核心作用;
        • 困境企业投资机遇有哪些?


      15:50
      茶歇与展区交流



      Track A 16:20
      分会场A: 中国债券市场展望

        • 国内债务水平自2009年之后不断上升,到2019已超过GDP的300%,高企的债务水平背后的原因是什么?去杠杆策略是否奏效?
        • 2019年全国总计违约债券177个,覆盖各个行业,投资者对固收市场是否仍有信心?大量公司债的违约对市场影响几何?城投债是否依然安全?
        • 企业债和公司债的发行从审批制转为备案制,对市场影响如何?债券发行量是否会激增?
        • 中国政府债被纳入摩根大通政府债券指数新兴市场对中国债市将产生什么影响?
        • 国际评级机构在对境内和境外发债机构进行评级时采用的方法有哪些不同?评级机构的工作面临哪些挑战?
        • 新冠病毒对公司偿债能力的影响如何?2020年违约率是否会创下历史新高?


      Track B 16:20
      分会场B: 亚洲不良市场探讨

        • 中国、日本和韩国都遭受了冠状病毒爆发的严重影响,亚洲地区的经济受到了多大的冲击?
        • 2020年亚洲银行的不良贷款率是否攀升?目前各行亚洲分行不良率如何?
        • 商业银行的亚洲分行采取了哪些措施来控制不良贷款水平?其中是否给国际投资人带来新的投资契机?


      17:10
      大会闭幕



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  • Friday, 20 November 2020
  • 会议当天

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