Fixed Income Investors' Forum on China
New York, NY
May 28, 2020


IMN's 1st Annual Fixed Income Investors’ Forum on China will take place in May 28, 2020 in New York City. As China seeks to open up its financial market to a more global investor base, this event is intended to educate Western investors about opportunities in the rapidly expanding domestic Chinese fixed income market. This includes corporate bonds, indices, and especially ABS (which topped over $250billion in total issuance in 2018).

This program will cover the various fixed income investment opportunities in China, and will delve deeper into the unique features and key risks foreign investors should consider. The ABS market will also be addressed in detail, including an overview of asset types (auto, consumer loans, NPLs, SME loans, factoring receivables), deal structures, the difference in the exchange versus the interbank market and regulatory developments specific to the securitization marketplace.

Attendees will hear from China’s debt issuers, international bankers and legal experts with deep experience and knowledge of both the Chinese and western ABS markets, with the aim of discussing how to align foreign investor interest with China’s ambition for a more open bond market.

Who Should Attend
  • Investors
  • Issuers
  • Regulators
  • Government entities
  • Rating agencies

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    Thursday, May 28th, 2020

      7:45 AM
      Registration Opens and Delegate Breakfast

      8:30 AM
      Pre-Conference Primer: Chinese Regulation 101, Demystifying The Governance Of Chinese Financial Markets

        • Overview of the respective roles and relationships between of the PBOC, NAFMII, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission in governing the fixed income market

      9:00 AM
      Opening Remarks, China Finance Association and IMN

        • Henry Mo, Chief Economist; President (AIG; Chinese Finance Association)

      9:10 AM
      Keynote Speech Cracking the Code: How Can we Effectively Measure Chinese Economic Growth and Political Risk?

        • How are investors and analysts independently measuring economic growth? What are the metrics being measured?
          • industrial production, electricity output, steel output
        • Slowing GDP growth: cause for concern or reasonably sustainable?
        • The rise of Consumption and the ‘new economy’ led growth: consumer finance trends including auto finance, online lending, retail
        • High government debt levels tied to infrastructure and construction projects;
        • How stable is China’s financial system? Plans re: de-leveraging the financial sector and the real economy
        • Impact of trade wars; how can political risk effectively be quantified?

      9:40 AM
      Keynote Speaker: Understanding the Nuances of Chinese Monetary Policy

        • Compare and contrast with US Monetary policy, i.e. quantitative versus rate targeted system
        • Overview of the structure and execution of monetary policy by the PBOC and SAFE
        • A Who’s who of Chinese Financial Policy: who is ultimately in charge? The key regulatory bodies and key dates to watch for major policy developments
        • Monetary policy conduct and the credit system: social/ aggregate financing and M2 (money supply measure)
        • What are the main tools in the monetary war chest? i.e. 1y deposit, 1y lending, RRR, 7 Day repo rate, 3mo shibor, USDCNY fix and what is their impact on China government bond yield? What are the various scenarios in which each tool may be deployed and what is its impact on bond yield?

      10:20 AM
      What to Buy? Dim Sum and Then Some, An Overview of What’s on the Fixed Income Investment Menu

        • What is the size and potential for growth of the world’s 3rd largest fixed income market; USD$9.3 trillion and expected to double in next ten years
        • The China Interbank Bond Market (CIBM)
          • Asset types: Chinese treasury bonds, provincial and local government bonds; central bank paper; corporate credit bonds; State Owned Enterprises; policy banks ( China Development Bank, Export Import Bank of China); commercial paper, Asset Backed Securities
        • Potential for additional foreign investment given infrastructure financing needs (Belt and Road) and ability for Chinese corporate borrowers to raise capital in any foreign currency with no RMB repatriation limits
        • Foreign friendly Dim Sum Bonds: issued in Hong Kong by Chinese Banks and some overseas entities, denominated in Yuan
        • Bond Indices
          • Which major indices now include Chinese on shore debt and government bonds? Citi, JPM, Bloomberg

      11:00 AM
      Refreshment Break

      11:20 AM
      Key Considerations for the Foreign Bond Investor: The Researchers’ and Traders’ Roundtable

        • Why include China in the global investment portfolio?
        • Inclusion in global emerging market and government bond indices: will this become the norm and what does this mean for global investors? Do we need China in our benchmarks?
        • Bond Trading Challenges:
          • Logistics: navigating the time zones. Is a local partner required to execute trades? How much control should you be willing to give up?
          • Liquidity: how are traders managing the liquidity risk, especially for off the run bonds?
            How will local bond holders respond in a short-term repo collapse and liquidity squeeze? How liquid is the secondary market in the absence of a centralized market maker?
          • Duration Risk: How easy is it to employ bond futures, or interest rate SWAPS as a hedging tool?
          • Inflation Risk: Profiling the current local bank holder of bonds. How interest rate and inflation risk sensitive are they? How can this impact the foreign investor?
          • Term premiums: how can this effectively be measured? Is there a historical curve used for reference?
          • Credit analysis: what should investors be prepared to do?
        • What are the main obstacles for global investors?
          • Access to the market: remaining regulatory barriers and required schemes investors must meet
          • Pricing risk accurately: are current levels of disclosure and transparency sufficient in order for offshore investors to evaluate risk and return effectively?

      12:10 PM
      Delegate Luncheon

      Track A 1:20 PM
      How to Access the CIBM: Understanding the Main Pathways for Foreign Investors

        • Compare and contrast the advantages of investing in the CIBM versus the stock exchange market; specifically in regards to diversity of assets, overall size, and liquidity
        • Role of Tradeweb and Bond Connect
          • Tradeweb provides fully electronic access for price discovery, settlement and transparency in the CIBM via Bond Connect
          • Bond Connect provides mutual access between Hong Kong and mainland China’s financial infrastructure with repsect to trading, custody and settlement
        • Comparing the advantages of Bond Connect to the alternative pathways: QFII and RQFII Programs; how Bond Connect has lowered barriers to entry for overseas investors
        • FX considerations
        • Liquidity concerns

      Track B 1:20 PM
      FX and Rates Considerations

        • Rates: what is the impact of a depreciating yuan on global investor appetite for onshore debt?
        • What investor protections are in place?
        • How easy is it to move money in and out of China?

      Track A 2:10 PM
      Ratings Developments for Chinese Debt

        • What is involved in rating a Chinese issuer: Do local and international CRA methodology differ?
        • What issues are international agencies encountering?
        • Is there too much dependency on local CRAs? Can international investors put stock in these ratings? Are local CRAs too lenient (95% of corporate bonds are rated AA or higher)?
        • As international CRAs obtain onshore licenses, will more corporates seek international ratings?
        • Understanding credit analysis specific to SOEs: understanding of government policy priorities and support for certain SOEs, i.e. an implicit government guarantees

      Track B 2:10 PM
      Public versus Private Markets in China

        • What are the major private equity and real estate developments in China
        • Where are US private equity firms investing?

      3:00 PM
      Refreshment Break

      Track A 3:20 PM
      The Flavor of the Month: Finding Relative Value in China’s Bond Market

        • Compare and contrast the various bond investment options: Green Bonds, Corporate Bonds, and ABS
        • Who are the major Chinese corporate issuers in local currency and USD$
        • What are the big industries represented?
        • How do policy banks, SOEs and corporates interact?

      Track B 3:20 PM
      Overview of the Chinese ABS Market

        • Defining the interbank vs. exchange market and the regulatory landscape; defining asset backed notes and their inclusion in the interbank scheme
        • Respective roles and relationships between of the PBOC, NAFMII, China Banking and Insurnace Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission in governing the ABS market
        • Overview of relevant regulatory bodies applicable for individual asset classes and / or securitization regimes
        • Asset types and deal structures: Autos, Consumer loans, Corporate SME loans, trade receivables, factoring/leasing receivables
        • Emerging assets including CMBS and REITs

      4:10 PM
      The New York Fixed Income Investors’ Forum on China Concludes


      7:45 AM

      8:30 AM
      入门课程:中国市场监管环境概述 -- 揭开中国金融市场治理的神秘面纱

        • 中国人民银行、中国银行间交易商协会、中国银保监会、和中国证监会在管理固定收益市场方面各自的分工和关系

      9:00 AM

        • Henry Mo, Chief Economist; President (AIG; Chinese Finance Association)

      9:10 AM
      主旨演讲:破解密码 -- 如何有效衡量中国经济增长和政治风险?

        • 投资人和分析师如何独立衡量经济增长?衡量指标有哪些?工业生产、电量输出、钢铁产量;
        • 放缓的GDP增长:应该引发担忧还是只是合理的可持续发展;
        • 消费增长以及由“新经济”引领的增长:消费金融趋势包括汽车金融、在线贷款、以及零售;
        • 基础设施建设项目导致的政府高负债水平;
        • 中国金融系统的稳定性如何?关于金融行业和实体经济去杠杆的计划有哪些?
        • 贸易战影响:如何有效量化政治风险?

      9:40 AM

        • 与美国货币政策的对比,即量化宽松与利率目标制;
        • 概述中国人民银行与中国外管局货币政策的架构与执行;
        • 谁是掌握中国金融政策话语权的人:谁是最终负责人?关注重大政策的发布监管机构以及日期;
        • 货币政策执行以及信贷体系:社会/总融资和M2;
        • 货币调节中的主要工具有哪些:即,一年期存款、一年期贷款、存款准备金率、7天回购利率、3个月的SHIBOR、中国汇率政策等、它们对中国国债收益率的影响是什么?各类工具的使用场景以及它们对债券收益率的影响有哪些?

      10:20 AM

        • 世界第三大债券市场的体量以及未来成长空间:9.3 万亿美金,在未来10年预计还会翻番;
        • 中国银行间债券市场;
        • 资产类别:国债、省级和地方政府债、中央银行票据、公司信用债、国企、政策性银行(国开行、进出口银行);商业汇票、资产支持证券;
        • 考虑到基建设施项目融资(一带一路倡议相关项目)融资需求,以及中国企业在海外无人民币汇回限制的情况下继续再融资的潜力,国际投资者应有更多投资中国债券市场的机会;
        • 海外投资者较为青睐的点心债:由中国国内银行以及海外机构在香港发行的以人民币计价债券;
        • 债券指数;
        • 哪些主要指数已经包括了中国在岸债券及政府债券?花旗、摩根大通、彭博

      11:00 AM

      11:20 AM

        • 为何要在国际投资组合中纳入中国元素?
        • 纳入全球新兴市场和政府债券指数:这会成为常态吗?这对全球投资者意味着什么?我们的对比基准中需要中国元素吗?
        • 债券交易中的挑战:
          • 执行: 时差。执行交易时是否需要本地的合作方? 交易人员愿意放弃多少控制权?
          • 流动性:交易员如何管理流动性风险,尤其是对于非当期发行的债券?在短期回购崩溃和流动性紧缩的情况下,地方债券持有人将如何应对?在没有集中做市商的情况下,二级市场的流动性如何?
          • 久期:采用债券期货、利率互换作为对冲工具是否容易?
          • 通胀风险:分析当前本地银行债券持有人的情况。他们对利率和通胀风险有多敏感?这对外国投资者有何影响?
          • 定期保费:如何有效衡量?是否有历史曲线可供参考?
          • 信用分析:投资者应该准备怎么做?
        • 国际投资者面临的主要障碍是什么?
          •   市场准入:现有的监管政策壁垒以及投资者参与市场所需要满足的条件;      
          • 精准定价风险:目前的信息披露程度和透明度是否足以让海外投资者进行有效的风险和回报评估?

      12:10 PM

      Track A 1:20 PM

        • 比较银行间市场和交易所市场的优劣;尤其两市在资产多样性、市场体量、以及流动性方面的差异;
        • Tradeweb 和债券通的作用
          • Tradeweb 通过作为债券通的主要交易平台,提供银行间市场的价格发现、结算信息等以提高透明度;
          • 债券通作为中国大陆与香港之间的金融基础设施,提供双向的交易、托管和结算服务;
        • 对比债券通与其他跨境交易路径的优劣:QFII和RQFII计划;债券通如何降低海外投资者的市场进入壁垒;
        • 汇率考虑;
        • 流动性考虑;

      Track B 1:20 PM
      分会场B: 汇率及利率考虑

        • 利率:人民币贬值将如何影响海外投资者对于中国债市的兴趣?
        • 目前有哪些投资者保护举措?
        • 资金进出中国是否容易?

      Track A 2:10 PM
      分会场A: 中国债券评级发展

        • 对中国发行人的评级涉及哪些方面的考虑:当地评级机构与国际评级机构所采用方法是否有所不同?
        • 国际评级机构目前遇到哪些问题?
        • 市场目前对于本地评级机构是否依赖过多?国际评级机构是否有机会加入其中?本地评级机构评级标准是否过于宽松?(95%的公司债券获得了等于或高于AA级的评级)
        • 随着越来越多的国际评级机构获得在岸执业牌照,是否越来越多的公司将会寻求国际评级?
        • 针对国有企业的特殊信用分析:了解政府政策优先事项和对某些国有企业的支持,即隐性政府担保;

      Track B 2:10 PM
      分会场B: 公募市场与私募市场

        • 中国私募股权和房地产市场的主要发展;
        • 美国私募股权在投资哪些领域?

      3:00 PM

      Track A 3:20 PM

        • 对比不同种类债券投资选择:绿色债券、公司债券、资产支持证券;
        • 以本地货币计价和美金计价的主要中资发行人有哪些?
        • 他们主要代表哪些行业?
        • 政策性银行、国有企业、以及公司之间如何互动?

      Track B 3:20 PM
      分会场B: 中国资产证券化市场概述

        • 定义银行间市场和交易所市场,以及监管环境;定义资产支持票据及其纳入银行同业拆借计划;
        • 中国人民银行、中国银行间市场交易商协会、中国银保监会和中国证监会在监管ABS市场方面各自的分工和相互的关系;
        • 适用于个别资产类别和/或证券化制度的对应监管机构描述;
        • 资产类别和交易结构:汽车贷款、消费贷款、中小企业贷款、应收账款、保理/租赁应收款;
        新兴资产类别:商业地产抵押贷款证券化 CMBS和不动产投资信托公司REITS

      4:10 PM


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  • Thursday, May 28th, 2020
  • 会议当天

1120 Avenue of the Americas, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10036
Tel: +1(212)901-0506 Fax: +1(212)768-2484

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